What Goes On In Nevada (What’s Going On?)

Jon Ralston posted some interesting insight into the electoral outlook in Nevada:

Tarkanian: CD3 Republican Early Vote Is Underperforming. At a discussion with the Southern Hills Republican Women’s Club, Danny Tarkanian said, “I haven’t slept for the last two days, and it’s because you guys are letting us down out here. I mean that. You’ve got a little shrug of the eyes, a little nervous. I’m going to be very honest with you right now. Congressional District 3 is underperforming by far of any district in the whole state. The Republican Party is down substantially in early voting; even more so that [than] it was in 2012. That in itself is bad, but Congressional District 3 is underperforming the rest of the state by 6 percentage points. Meaning that Democrats are voting at a 6 percent higher rate with respect to registration here in CD3 than Republicans are, and most of it is not so much that there’s been more Democrats that have voted, we haven’t got our Republicans out to vote.” [Southern Hills Republican Women’s Club, 10/25/16]

Tarkanian: If Republican Turnout Doesn’t Improve “We’re All Going Down” And “Joe Heck Is Going to Go Down.” At a discussion with the Southern Hills Republican Women’s Club, Danny Tarkanian said, “We need your help right now, because I’ll tell you, if this doesn’t change we’re all going down in CD3. Every one of the people that spoke here, if you’re in CD3 you’re going to be in the same boat as I am, and Joe Heck is going to go down.” [Southern Hills Republican Women’s Club, 10/25/16]

Daily Kos diarist First Amendment notes, “This is the reason Democrats are shifting volunteers from Nevada to Arizona”, and if that sounds strange at least we know where it’s coming from. To the other, it just doesn’t sound strange. Rasmussen/KNTV poll numbers coming down this week show Clinton leading Trump in Nevada, and, yes, incumbent U.S. Senator Joe Heck (R) trailing Democratic challenger Catherine Cortez Masto. It’s a thin lead, and the first time Cortez Masto has led during the cycle. Perhaps Danny Tarkanian overstates this part, or maybe not. Donald Trump continues his breathtaking plummet, dragging the Republican Party with him.

____________________

First Amendment. “Republican panic in Nevada. ‘We’re all going down.'” Daily Kos. 26 October 2016.

Giordano, Al. “Breaking”. Twitter. 25 October 2016.

Ralston, Jon. “How bad has early voting been for GOP in NV?” twitter. 26 October 2016.

Snyder, Riley. “KTNV/RASMUSSEN POLL: Clinton pulls ahead of Trump in Nevada as early voting starts”. KNTV. 24 October 2016.

—————. “KTNV/RASMUSSEN POLL: Cortez Masto narrowly eclipsing Heck in close Nevada Senate race”. KNTV. 25 October 2016.

A Clown Car Presentation: Insurevirentaderble

Never read too much into any one poll, but the lede from Associated Press is nonetheless troubling:

Republican voters view Donald Trump as their strongest general election candidate, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that highlights the sharp contrast between the party’s voters and its top professionals regarding the billionaire businessman’s ultimate political strength.

But wait, there’s more:

Seven in 10 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump could win in November 2016 if he is nominated, and that’s the most who say so of any candidate. By comparison, 6 in 10 say the same for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who, like Trump, has tapped into the powerful wave of antiestablishment anger defining the early phases of the 2016 contest.

And then there is the reality check: “Trump and Carson are considered among the least electable general election candidates by the Republican Party’s professionals, those who are in the business of helping candidates run campaigns and win elections”, explain Steve Peoples and Emily Swanson, and in truth one need not be a political professional to figure that out. Still, though, how superstitious do we really wish to be?