A Steady Drip (Carter Page)

#PutiTrump | #WhatTheyVotedFor

Something goes here about the headlines that drop in the evening; in the week before President Trump’s infamous tweetstorm accusing President Obama of wiretapping him, evening headlines kept the White House running ragged night after night. And, yes, there is some irony that we have now come far enough ’round the circle that Carter Page might well be the answer to what the president was on about. Or, as the evening headline from the Washington Post has it, “FBI obtained FISA warrant to monitor Trump adviser Carter Page”:

This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump campaign adviser was in touch with Russian agents. Such contacts are now at the center of an investigation into whether the campaign coordinated with the Russian government to swing the election in Trump’s favor.

Page has not been accused of any crimes, and it is unclear whether the Justice Department might later seek charges against him or others in connection with Russia’s meddling in the 2016 presidential election. The counterintelligence investigation into Russian efforts to influence U.S. elections began in July, officials have said. Most such investigations don’t result in criminal charges.

Rachel Maddow spent some effort on msnbc last night driving a point about how unusual it is that we should see leaked such details of a FISA warrant. In that context perhaps it behooves us to consider whether or not the prospect of leaking this FISA warrant would come about at all were it not for President Trump’s twitterpated tantrum after a week of bad evening headlines.

My Superstition (Anti-Prophet)

This is a personal superstition:

Aside from the obvious, it’s worth noting that when governors go to New Hampshire to headline fundraisers, it often means they’re thinking about raising their visibility ahead of a national campaign. Bevin’s entire career in public office has only lasted a couple of months; is he already eyeing some kind of promotion?

Every once in a while a paragraph like this comes up, or some similar circumstance. One reads or hears something, and, you know, just … oh, come on.

And while it is easy enough to knock Steve Benen for sounding histrionic partisan alarms early, the truth of the matter is that I also scoffed, nearly three years ago, at the proposition of Ben Carson running for president.

A Clown Car Presentation: Insurevirentaderble

Never read too much into any one poll, but the lede from Associated Press is nonetheless troubling:

Republican voters view Donald Trump as their strongest general election candidate, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that highlights the sharp contrast between the party’s voters and its top professionals regarding the billionaire businessman’s ultimate political strength.

But wait, there’s more:

Seven in 10 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump could win in November 2016 if he is nominated, and that’s the most who say so of any candidate. By comparison, 6 in 10 say the same for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who, like Trump, has tapped into the powerful wave of antiestablishment anger defining the early phases of the 2016 contest.

And then there is the reality check: “Trump and Carson are considered among the least electable general election candidates by the Republican Party’s professionals, those who are in the business of helping candidates run campaigns and win elections”, explain Steve Peoples and Emily Swanson, and in truth one need not be a political professional to figure that out. Still, though, how superstitious do we really wish to be?

The Red Balloon

This is a question:

As recently as Tuesday, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) sounded very much like he was moving towards the 2016 presidential race. Just one day later, however, Politico reported that the Republican governor had decided to bow out ....

.... So, that settles that? Oddly enough, no. Late last night, the MLive Media Group that covers Michigan news confirmed with the governor’s spokesperson that Snyder “has not made any decisions” about the presidential race, pushing back against the Politico report, which cited unnamed sources.

The governor’s press secretary specifically said that when it comes to Snyder’s possible national plans, nothing has changed. “On 2016, he’s watching the presidential race closely and hoping a common sense problem-solver emerges,” press secretary Sara Wurfel said. “He has not made any decisions about entering the field at this time.”

What’s left is a confusing picture.

(Benen)

Why doesn’t everyone just say, “trial balloon”, and get on with it?

The Mike Huckabee Experience (Sixteen Candles Pilot Episode)

There will be plenty of fun stuff to cover, to be certain; Mike Huckabee has a history. For now it is enough to note that the former governor of Arkansas has entered the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

Mike Huckabee had a pretty good record as governor. It’s too bad he can’t run on it. Better known in recent years for saying occasionally outrageous things as a commentator, Huckabee governed Arkansas for more than a decade as a pragmatist, devoting his attention to basics such as roads, schools and health care. On those issues, though, Huckabee generally took positions too liberal to suit a Republican presidential prospect in 2016—posing a conundrum for him as he plunges this week into the 2016 presidential race.

(Greenblatt)

Alan Greenblatt’s report for Politico notwithstanding―and there’s a hell of a flick of the wrist, eh?―msnbc blogger Steve Benen wonders if Mr. Huckabee stands a chance, and suggests, “by most measures, Huckabee remains a factional candidate who will struggle to compete for his party’s nomination”.

Mr. Benen’s analysis notwithstanding―what? couldn’t see that coming?―we might simply consider that the Republican (ahem!) clown car just got a headline absurdist.

Perhaps “notwithstanding” is the wrong word to abuse today. Benen reflects that Mr. Huckabee “enters the race as a credible, second-tier contender, leading much of the large GOP field”, and when we stop to consider that the professional huckster’s more clownish aspects are what lead him to this prestige, reflecting at once upon Greenblatt’s point about the former Arkansas governor’s gubernatorial record and the seemingly obvious juxtaposition of what it takes to achieve such popularity among conservatives. Mike Huckabee has another record, and that will be in its own way representative of the current conservative ethos. And, you know, zeitgeist. Just, well, right, you know, because the word goes in here somewhere. Actually, you know, Benen gives a pretty good thumbnail sketch, but still, this is what it feels like, and this is what it takes.

____________________

Image note: Detail: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee waits backstage before speaking during the Freedom Summit Saturday, Jan. 24, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Greenblatt, Alan. “Mike Huckabee’s Love Affair With Big Government”. Politico. 4 May 2015.

Benen, Steve. “Does Mike Huckabee stand a chance?” msnbc. 5 May 2015.

Another Quote: Klein on Poli Sci

“American politics is changing. Politicians are losing power and political parties are gaining it. A politician’s relationships might once have been a good guide to her votes. Today, the “D” or “R” after a politician’s name tells you almost everything you need to know.”

—Ezra Klein

To the one, he has a point. To the other, it does not seem to matter much, as the applied political science still seems more aimed toward deceiving than understanding. Nor is that intended as a condemnation of political science as a discipline, but if we bear in mind that electoral politics is an industry ripe for plunder, we might pause to wonder what business would employ a rising social science to its own detriment.

And the answer to that is clear: None.

Well, sort of. Because then there are Republicans; the conventional wisdom in this exceptional case—that they are not hurting themselves on purpose, but, rather, are simply unable to not—seems pretty safe rather quite demonstrable.